Fresh analysis of the Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times and Real Radio Scotland – which places support for a Yes vote as the most popular constitutional option – shows the SNP would win even more seats than in the election landslide over a year ago.
It shows the SNP would take former Labour leader Iain Gray’s East Lothian seat and the the Tory seats of Galloway and West Dumfries and Ayr – currently held by Alex Fergusson and John Scott.
The poll puts SNP support at 47 per cent in the constituency vote for the Scottish Parliament – a 2% increase since the historic election result of 2011.
This compares to the three other parties falling back or remaining static with Labour at 32%, Tories at 12% and LibDems at 6%.
Commenting, the SNP MSP for Falkirk West, Michael Matheson said:
“The results of this very welcome poll are a result of the SNP’s continued positive message and the fact we are the party recognised as being the one that looks after the interests of the people of Scotland.
“To have increased our poll ratings by 2% since our sensational election landslide over a year ago is fantastic.
“But it piles even more misery on the anti-independence parties – and is particularly embarrassing for the Labour Party.
The people are clearly rejecting Labour’s position of ‘no change’ for Scotland and the party’s unholy alliance with the Tories within Falkirk Council, and quite rightly so.”
Mr Matheson added:
“The Tories throughout Scotland are becoming increasingly seen in a negative light and have no credibility as a political party locally.
From their cuts in welfare budgets, betrayal of Scottish Troops and constant talking down of our people the only surprise is that the Tories have no disappeared off the political map of Scotland altogether..
“The Panelbase results pile more pressure on the anti-independence coalition to spell out what their vision is for Scotland’s constitutional future – the people of Scotland deserve to know what their alternative amounts to.”
Notes: The Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times and Real RadioScotlandsurveyed 1,012 adults inScotlandbetween 11th – 17th July 2012.
Total seat breakdowns are as follows (with changes from the May 2011 election in brackets).
SNP: 72 (69)
Labour: 36 (37)
Tory: 13 (15)
LibDem: 5 (5)
Green: 2 (2)
Ind: 1 (1)
Party support breakdowns are as follows (with changes from the May 2011 election in brackets).
SNP: 47% (+2%)
Labour: 32% (n/c)
Tory: 12% (-2%)
LibDem: 6% (-2%)
SNP: 46% (+2%)
Labour: 28% (2%)
Tory: 11% (-1%)
LibDem: 4% (-1%)
Greens: 6% (2%)
Others: 4% (-4%)
When the three constitutional options are asked alongside each other, independence is the most popular:
More devolution: 29%
Status Quo: 28%
Asked about supporting independence the figures are:
Don’t Know: 20%
A TNS poll taken earlier this month showed the following figures:
Don’t Know: 20%