Voters are steadily moving towards saying Yes in next year’s referendum, according to a new opinion poll published in The Sunday Times on 24th March.
The Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times and Real Radio has shown a dramatic narrowing in the polls for the referendum on an independent Scotland, with a swing of only just over 5% now required to secure a Yes vote in the September 2014 vote.
The poll shows support for Yes at 36%, No at 46%, and ‘don’t knows’ at 18% – the narrowest gap in the campaign so far. Excluding the ‘don’t knows’ shows that 44% would back a Yes vote while 56% would vote No.
The poll has also demonstrated the huge levels of trust people across Scotland continue to place in the SNP, with the party enjoying a 20-point lead on Labour in the regional vote for the Scottish Parliament.
The poll shows 47% of people would back the SNP in the constituency vote for Holyrood – up two points from the May 2011 landslide election result – compared to 30% for Labour, who have fallen two points since the same election, 12% who would back the Tories and just 5% who would vote for the LibDems. The poll comes just days after it was announced that the referendum on an independent Scotland would take place on 18 September 2014.
Commenting, SNP MSP for Falkirk West, Michal Matheson said,
“The poll is in line with our findings locally as well as nationally.
As the agenda and debate moves to what type of society Scotland can be with independence compared to the promise of more cuts an inequality within the UK the more people are turning to the positive message of the Yes camp.
People are aware of the fact no Scottish Government would ever implement regressive policies such the Tory Bedroom Tax while cutting the top rate of income tax for the richest in the country.
The publication of the recent GERS figures that show an independent Scotlandwould be the 8th richest country in the world if independent demonstrates we can afford a better more balanced society.
The positive message of the Yes campaign is in major contrast with the negativity of the Tory led anti campaign that relies of misinformation fears and smears. This poll shows that the people are being turned off by not only the negativity of the No campaign but also the contradictory messages from the Labour Party inScotland.
The message from Labour’s national leadership is thatWestminsterisn’t working while inScotlandthey campaign for the status quo including the dumping of weapons of mass destruction in our country, welfare cuts for the poor and tax cuts for the rich.
Its also just short of two years since the landslide support that the people of Scotland gave us, this poll also shows backing for the SNP has actually increased even further on those extraordinary levels.
With the Scottish Government standing up for people in Scotland in the face of Westminster’s cuts agenda, people are continuing to place their trust in the SNP in huge numbers – while Labour have slipped even further back under Johann Lamont’s leadership.
“This poll is a fantastic vote of confidence, and gives us a rock solid platform on which to build support for a Yes vote in next September’s vote.”
Notes: The Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times/Real Radio surveyed 885 adults in Scotland between 18-22 March, and found:
Should Scotland be an independent country?
When undecided voters are removed, the findings are:
Scottish Parliament Constituency vote (change on 2011 result in brackets):
SNP: 47% (+2%)
Labour: 30% (-2%)
Conservatives: 12% (-2%)
LibDems: 5% (-3%)
Scottish Parliament Regional vote (change on 2011 result in brackets):
SNP: 45% (+1%)
Labour: 25% (-1%)
Conservatives: 12% (n/c)
LibDems: 5% (n/c)
Greens: 8% (+4%)