The latest published opinion poll shows the gap between the YES and NO camps to be narrowing to the extent that a highly acheivable 5% swing over the next fourteen months will give the independence campaign victory.
The same poll also shows the SNP up from their landslide winning position in 2011 in both the constituency and list votes with Labour down in both.
Welcoming the Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times Scotland and Real Radio Scotland today on the referendum and party ratings, Scottish National Party Business Convener Derek Mackay MSP said:
“This is an extremely encouraging poll for Yes and for the SNP. With just a single-digit gap between Yes and No, a swing of less than 5 per cent is enough to put independence ahead. There is everything to play for – Yes supporters are more likely to vote than people currently on the No side, which may very well be down to the negative Project Fear campaign failing to motivate even their own supporters.
“For months now, the anti-independence campaign have been talking Scotland down and manufacturing scare stories which even Scottish Tory deputy leader Jackson Carlaw described as ‘silly’. People want to hear a positive message for Scotland’s future, which only Yes are offering.
“The poll is also very positive for the SNP, putting our support for both the constituency and list votes even higher than in our 2011 election landslide, and Labour even lower. After over six years into government, the SNP now has more support than the three anti-independence Westminster parties put together, which demonstrates trust and confidence in the record of delivery of the SNP Government.
“Labour are actually going backwards from their 2011 rout under Johann Lamont’s leadership – and her invisibility during their Falkirk candidate selection crisis may well be a contributory factor.”
Sunday Times / Real Radio Scotland : Panelbase poll (1,001 sample)
Conducted 17-24 July
Referendum voting intentions:
Yes 37%, No 46%, don’t know 17%.
Party Voting intentions:
( with change in support since 2011 Holyrood elections in brackets )
SNP 48% ( +3 )
Lab 30% ( -2 )
Con 13% ( -1 )
Lib D 4% ( -4 )
Other 5% (+3)
SNP 48% (+4)
Lab 25% (- 1)
Con 13% ( 0)
Green 6% (+2)
Lib D 4% ( -1)
Other 4% (-2)