SNP surge in the polls continues with a clear lead for May 5th

Michael Matheson

Falkirk West SNP candidate today welcomed the YouGov opinion poll in today’s Scotland on Sunday newspaper, which shows the SNP sweeping ahead of Labour in the Scottish Parliament campaign – building on recent strong poll swings towards the SNP, and the victory earlier this month in the Wick council by-election within a Lib Dem parliamentary seat.

While a Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times two weeks ago put the SNP ahead, this is the first YouGov poll to show an SNP lead in both the constituency and regional list votes since September 2009. The last YouGov poll, in the Scotsman last month, put the SNP ahead by one point in the constituency vote, but behind Labour by 7 points in the regional list.

Following the launch of the SNP’s “Alex Salmond for First Minister” campaign for the list vote, there has been a 9-point shift in favour of the SNP in today’s YouGov poll – underlining the strength of this message.

In addition, the gap between Alex Salmond and Labour’s Iain Gray in terms of who would be best First Minister has grown by two-thirds since last month’s YouGov poll – the previous gap of 15 points is now a massive 25 points.

The poll also shows that given the choice between the SNP and Labour to head the next Scottish Government, 47 per cent (+3 from last month) support the SNP, compared to 39 per cent (-3) for Labour – a gap of 8 points today compared to 2 points last month.

Mr Matheson said,:

“This is an excellent poll, confirming that the SNP have the big momentum in Scotland’s election. We are working hard to win people’s trust, and our positive message of record, team and vision for Scotland is being received extremely well in communities across the country.

“The poll demonstrates the strength of the SNP’s message of Alex Salmond for First Minister, as we work to re-elect the Scottish Government and continue our record of delivery for the people.

“The gap between Alex Salmond and Iain Gray in terms of who would be best First Minister has grown by two-thirds in less than a month, to a yawning chasm of 25 points.

“And a key finding is the 8-point SNP lead over Labour in the straight-choice question between the two parties – a fourfold increase on last month, confirming that increasingly people are choosing the positive SNP compared to a negative Labour campaign.”

NOTE: The YouGov poll for Scotland on Sunday was sampled from 13-15 April among 1,035 adults.

The results are (changes from last month’s YouGov/Scotsman poll, sampled from 25-28 March, in brackets):

CONSTITUENCY VOTE

SNP: 40% (n/c)
Lab: 37% (-2)
Con: 11% (n/c)
Lib Dem: 8% (+3)
Other: 4%

REGIONAL LIST VOTE

SNP: 35% (+3)
Lab: 33% (-6)
Con: 12% (n/c)
Lib Dem: 7% (+2)
Green: 6%
Other: 7%

SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT SEATS PROJECTION

SNP: 55
Lab: 49
Con: 14
Lib Dem: 6
Green: 5

BEST FIRST MINISTER

Alex Salmond: 52% (+4)
Iain Gray: 27% (-6)

CHOICE BETWEEN SNP AND LABOUR TO HEAD NEXT SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT

SNP: 47% (+3)
Lab: 39% (-3)
Don’t Know: 14% (+1)

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