Labour in Crisis as SNP Surge in Polls

DerekMacKay_151012Scottish Labour’s crisis has deepened this week as the latest polling figures show the damaged caused by their alliance with the Tories at Westminster during the referendum – Labour are now polling at just 26% while the SNP have reached 43%.

A consistent picture has been emerging over the last four weeks with support for Scottish Labour diminishing while SNP support has surged.

Scottish Labour has been engulfed in a crisis with two former Labour First Ministers Henry McLeish and Jack McConnell raising concerns about the future of Scottish Labour and Johann Lamont’s leadership, with both criticising the party’s devolution proposals.

Mr McLeish has said that traditional Labour voters don’t know “what the party stands for” and Lord McConnell said the Labour Party had lost its purpose in Scotland and highlighted the “staggering” loss of support to the SNP in traditional heartland areas.

The recent polling was reflected in Thursday’s by-election in Oban which saw a swing of over 9% in just two months from Labour to the SNP.

Commenting, SNP Business Convener Derek MacKay said:

“Scottish Labour’s nightmare doesn’t seem to be ending. Their referendum alliance with the Tories show how they have lost their way, lost trust with the voters and thus lost support. People are trusting the SNP to stand up for them against an unpopular Tory government.

“The fact that two former Labour First Ministers have now spoken out against the direction of the party under Johann Lamont will give impetus to the Labour MPs plotting against her leadership. And Thursday’s council by-election in Oban, where the SNP won by a solid majority, highlights the direction the wind is now blowing.

“Labour in Scotland have lost all credibility which is exactly why their poll ratings are tumbling and more and more people in traditional Labour heartlands are switching straight to the SNP.”

Analysis of five weeks of YouGov samples for Westminster voting intention shows that the SNP has led in every one and that the weekly average shows the SNP having a consistent level of support.

Fieldwork 21-26 Sept 28 Sept – 3 Oct 5-10 Oct 12-17 Oct 19-22 Oct
No. of Polls 5 5 5 5 4
Total Sample 1,302 1,246 1,120 1,177 942
SNP 41% 39% 39% 41% 43%
Lab 29% 29% 29% 25% 26%
Con 17% 17% 18% 19% 16%
LibDem 6% 6% 7% 7% 5%
UKIP 3% 4% 4% 5% 3%
Green 4% 3% 3% 3% 5%
Other 1% 2% 1% 1% 2%
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