A breakdown of the TNS System Three poll issued on Sunday May 3rd shows Labour at risk of losing party leader Iain Gray’s East Lothian seat to the SNP.
As the SNP approaches mid-term in Government the poll shows it is Labour’s shadow cabinet who are suffering as the SNP’s continued efforts to protect jobs and support communities win support across Scotland.
The TNS poll would see the SNP secure 58 seats – an increase of 11 overall -including the constituency seats of Labour leader Iain Gray (East Lothian), Finance Spokesman Andy Kerr ( East Kilbride), Education spokeswoman Rhona Brankin (Midlothian), Environment Spokeswoman Sarah Boyack (Edinburgh Central) and Falkirk East MSP, Cathy Peattie.
The poor poll results for Labour add to those of a recent You/Gov SNP poll showing only 7% of Scots want the Labour leader to be First Minister.
Commenting on the results SNP Councillor Angus MacDonald said,
“This poll will only add to Labour’s misery as they collapse as a credible political party.
“As we reach the mid-term point in this Parliament and mark the tenth anniversary of devolution it is clear that it is the SNP who are protecting Scotland’s jobs and supporting our communities.
“In stark contrast Labour will find little comfort in this poll. These results would remove not only the Labour leader in the Scottish Parliament but also the only first past the post MSP Labour have in Forth Valley, Cathy Peattie..
“This opinion poll shows families and businesses across the district working with the SNP to get through the tough times towards economic prosperity and social justice.
“In just two years – as we approach the midway point of the parliament – the SNP have already delivered over half of our headline manifesto commitments to improve the lives of people all across Scotland.
“Among 50 key achievements, we have frozen the council tax, slashed business rates, abolished bridge tolls, saved A&E units, scrapped tuition fees, are phasing out prescription charges, and much more besides.
“Meanwhile Labour’s decision to retain ID cards and to build a new Trident system while carrying out a £500 million raid on Scottish spending has set the terms of politics in Scotland, and will galvanise SNP support further in the European and Westminster elections to come.”
1. Details of the TNS/System 3 poll of 986 adults between 22 and 28 April are as follows:
Holyrood Constituency Vote (with change from 2007 in brackets)
SNP: 41% (+8%)
Labour: 29% (-3%)
Tory: 15% (-2%)
LibDem: 11% (-5%)
Other: 3% (1%)
Holyrood Regional Vote (with change from 2007 in brackets)
SNP: 40% (+9%)
Labour: 30% (1%)
Tory: 13% (-1%)
LibDem: 10% (-1%)
Green: 4% (nc)
Other: 4% (-7%)
Holyrood seats analysis
Running those figures through the Weber Shandwick seats predictor gives the following result (with change in brackets):
SNP – 58 (+11)
Labour – 41 (-5)
Tory – 16 (-1)
LibDem – 12 (-4)
Green – 2 (nc)
2. Seats that fall to SNP
Airdrie and Shotts – Karen Whitefield, Education Convenor Cumbernauld and Kilsyth – Cathy Craigie East Kilbride – Andy Kerr, Labour’s Finance Spokesperson Falkirk East – Cathie Peattie Cathcart – Charlie Gordon Glasgow Kelvin – Pauline McNeil, Labour Culture spokesperson Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross – Jamie Stone Ross, Skye and Inverness West – John Farquhar Munro Edinburgh Central – Sarah Boyack, Labour’s Rural & Environment Spokesperson Edinburgh North and Leith – Malcolm Chisholm Edinburgh West – Margaret Smith, LibDem Education Spokesperson Linlithgow – Mary Mulligan Midlothian – Rhona Brankin, Labour’s Education Spokesperson Dunfermline West – Jim Tolson Kirkcaldy – Marlyn Livingstone Clydesdale – Karen Gillon Cunninghame South – Irene Oldfather East Lothian – Iain Gray, Labour Leader Galloway and Upper Nithsdale- Alex Fergusson Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale – Jeremy Purvis, LibDem Finance Spokesperson Clydebank and Milngavie – Des McNulty, Transport Spokesperson Dumbarton – Jackie Baillie West Renfrewshire – Trish Godman Aberdeen Central – Lewis McDonald, Labour Energy Spokesperson Aberdeen South – Nicol Stephen West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine – Mike Rumbles, LD Business Manager
3. YouGov poll of 1,020 adults in Scotland was commissioned by the SNP and conducted from 21-22 April):
* Which ONE, if any, of the following Scottish Political leaders do you think would make the best First Minister?
Alex Salmond – 36%
Annabelle Goldie – 10%
Iain Gray – 7%
Tavish Scott – 4%
Patrick Harvie – 1%